{
 "as_of": "2026-10-31",
 "graded_on": "2026-11-13",
 "spec_sha256": "00ecf4ffb751f617bada987681521ace2a17a43bdb61e50a90d9b081fc3fa1c5",
 "rows": [
  {
   "id": "T1",
   "side": "toll",
   "claim": "Intents keeps the lead among native cross-chain rails",
   "metric": "rail_share_13w",
   "op": "<",
   "threshold": 40,
   "unit": "%",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "effect": "Toll-road leg dead: drop to the bear case.",
   "value": 64.0805,
   "status": "live",
   "room_pct": 60.2
  },
  {
   "id": "T2",
   "side": "toll",
   "claim": "Gross fee rate holds (three months)",
   "metric": "gross_bps_90d",
   "op": "<",
   "threshold": 8,
   "unit": "bps",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "effect": "Fees are compressing: pricing power is gone.",
   "value": 14.9248,
   "status": "live",
   "room_pct": 86.6
  },
  {
   "id": "T3",
   "side": "toll",
   "claim": "Captured revenue rate holds (three months)",
   "metric": "net_bps_90d",
   "op": "<",
   "threshold": 2.5,
   "unit": "bps",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "effect": "Partners are winning the split: cut the base case.",
   "value": 4.6454,
   "status": "live",
   "room_pct": 85.8
  },
  {
   "id": "T4",
   "side": "toll",
   "claim": "Reported volume stays corroborated on-chain",
   "metric": "flow_ratio_median",
   "op": "<",
   "threshold": 0.35,
   "unit": "x",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "effect": "Reported volume has come apart from settled flow: stop trusting it.",
   "value": 0.5745,
   "status": "live",
   "room_pct": 64.1
  },
  {
   "id": "T5",
   "side": "toll",
   "claim": "Annualised volume does not fall below its pre-September run rate",
   "metric": "vol_annualised",
   "op": "<",
   "threshold": 26000000000,
   "unit": "usd",
   "deadline": "2027-06-30",
   "effect": "The September step-up was temporary.",
   "value": 47962291042.47,
   "status": "live",
   "room_pct": 84.5
  },
  {
   "id": "T6",
   "side": "toll",
   "claim": "No exploit leaves Intents users with large unrecovered losses",
   "metric": "exploit_unrecovered_365d",
   "op": ">",
   "threshold": 10000000,
   "unit": "usd",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "effect": "Security, not fees, is the binding risk: drop to the bear case until the loss is repaid and the cause is fixed.",
   "added": "2026-11-12",
   "value": 0.0,
   "status": "live",
   "room_pct": 100.0
  },
  {
   "id": "A1",
   "side": "token",
   "claim": "Captured revenue stays well below the value of issuance",
   "metric": "offset_90d_rev_pct",
   "op": ">",
   "threshold": 50,
   "unit": "%",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "effect": "Revenue is closing on issuance faster than we expected: raise the bull weight.",
   "value": 18.9737,
   "status": "live",
   "room_pct": 62.1
  },
  {
   "id": "A2",
   "side": "token",
   "claim": "Captured revenue, annualised from the last three months, stays under $100M",
   "metric": "rev_annualised",
   "op": ">",
   "threshold": 100000000,
   "unit": "usd",
   "deadline": "2027-06-30",
   "effect": "Revenue is ahead of our base path: the bear half of the thesis is wrong.",
   "value": 22280176.91,
   "status": "live",
   "room_pct": 77.7
  },
  {
   "id": "A3",
   "side": "token",
   "claim": "No large on-chain burn of bought NEAR",
   "metric": "largest_daily_burn_since_buyback",
   "op": ">",
   "threshold": 100000,
   "unit": "NEAR",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "effect": "A binding burn exists: set the claim input to 1.0.",
   "value": 3851.27,
   "status": "live",
   "room_pct": 96.1
  },
  {
   "id": "A4",
   "side": "token",
   "claim": "NEAR stays priced far above fee-token comps",
   "metric": "near_multiple",
   "op": "<",
   "threshold": 60,
   "unit": "x",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "effect": "The premium has closed: the valuation objection no longer holds.",
   "value": 157.1,
   "status": "live",
   "room_pct": 161.8
  },
  {
   "id": "A5",
   "side": "token",
   "claim": "The market's premium over our base case does not keep widening",
   "metric": "price_over_base_pct",
   "op": ">",
   "threshold": 100,
   "unit": "%",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "effect": "The market keeps paying a chain premium our cash-flow frame cannot see, and paying more of it: raise the chain value input to what the price implies and the bull weight.",
   "added": "2026-11-12",
   "value": 75.5,
   "status": "live",
   "room_pct": 24.5
  }
 ],
 "tripped": [],
 "note": "Set on 2026-11-01. Two rows were added after review and graded on the same snapshot as the rest: T6, an exploit rule, on 2026-11-12, and A5, which watches the chain premium, later the same day. The other nine thresholds are unchanged; on 2026-11-13 three row titles gained the window they measure (T2, T3, A2). Each row is graded by code at every build, with no human step (T6 reads a hand-kept incident list). If a toll row trips, Intents is not the durable toll road we say it is. If a token row trips, our caution on the token was wrong."
}