{  "scenarios": {    "bear": {      "probability": 0.35,      "summary": "The lead slips, fees compress, the buyback stays discretionary.",      "inputs": {        "supply": "$supply",        "vol0": "$vol_annualised",        "cagr": -0.05,        "gross_bps_start": "$gross_bps_90d",        "gross_bps_end": 8,        "capture_start": 0.3,        "capture_end": 0.3,        "claim": 0.5,        "l1_burn_usd": 0,        "l1_growth": 0,        "issuance_start": "$gross_issuance_pct*0.01",        "issuance_end": 0.025,        "ramp_years": 3,        "treasury_share": 0.1,        "commission": "$commission_wavg_pct*0.01",        "discount": 0.15,        "exit_multiple": 12,        "l1_value": 700000000      }    },    "base": {      "probability": 0.45,      "summary": "Intents keeps most of its lane and volume compounds with crypto.",      "inputs": {        "supply": "$supply",        "vol0": "$vol_annualised",        "cagr": 0.3,        "gross_bps_start": "$gross_bps_90d",        "gross_bps_end": 12,        "capture_start": "$capture_30d_pct*0.01",        "capture_end": 0.45,        "claim": 0.75,        "l1_burn_usd": 0,        "l1_growth": 0,        "issuance_start": "$gross_issuance_pct*0.01",        "issuance_end": 0.016,        "ramp_years": 2,        "treasury_share": 0.1,        "commission": "$commission_wavg_pct*0.01",        "discount": 0.15,        "exit_multiple": 25,        "l1_value": "$l1_peer_median_fdv"      }    },    "bull": {      "probability": 0.2,      "summary": "Intents becomes the default cross-chain rail and a binding rule sends revenue to holders.",      "inputs": {        "supply": "$supply",        "vol0": "$vol_annualised",        "cagr": 0.7,        "gross_bps_start": "$gross_bps_90d",        "gross_bps_end": 12,        "capture_start": "$capture_30d_pct*0.01",        "capture_end": 0.6,        "claim": 1.0,        "l1_burn_usd": 0,        "l1_growth": 0,        "issuance_start": "$gross_issuance_pct*0.01",        "issuance_end": 0.016,        "ramp_years": 2,        "treasury_share": 0.1,        "commission": "$commission_wavg_pct*0.01",        "discount": 0.15,        "exit_multiple": 30,        "l1_value": 3900000000      }    }  },  "tornado": {    "cagr": [      0.05,      0.6,      "Volume growth a year"    ],    "gross_bps_end": [      6,      20,      "Year-5 gross fee, bps"    ],    "capture_end": [      0.25,      0.7,      "Year-5 capture rate"    ],    "claim": [      0.4,      1.0,      "Share of captured revenue that reaches holders"    ],    "exit_multiple": [      12,      45,      "Exit multiple on holder earnings"    ],    "discount": [      0.2,      0.11,      "Discount rate"    ],    "l1_value": [      500000000,      3900000000,      "Value of NEAR as a chain, apart from Intents"    ],    "issuance_end": [      0.025,      0.016,      "Long-run issuance (stakers barely feel it)"    ]  },  "grid": {    "volumes": [      50000000000,      100000000000,      200000000000,      400000000000,      800000000000,      1600000000000    ],    "net_bps": [      2,      3,      4,      5.5,      8,      12    ]  },  "reasons": {    "probability": "Judgement, explained in THESIS.md. The result leans on the bull weight, so the memo shows what other weights give.",    "claim": "Share of captured revenue we credit to holders. Below 1 because nothing on-chain binds the buyback: the NEAR sits in a 2-confirmation multisig and a DAO wallet.",    "exit_multiple": "Market cap over annualised holder revenue across ten tokens. The median anchors the base case; the bull case uses the high end of the normal range, the bear the low end.",    "l1_value": "What a chain with this usage fetches with no Intents, on an FDV basis because NEAR is fully circulating: bear near Aptos, base the median of seven peers, bull near Avalanche and Sui. In the base case this one input is over half the value.",    "discount": "One rate for all cases, because risk is already in the scenario weights.",    "commission": "Stake-weighted commission of pools open to delegators, read from chain.",    "l1_burn_usd": "Zero. Chain fees are part of the chain value, so counting them in earnings would double count.",    "ownership": "Value is for the average holder. Staking rewards move value from non-stakers to stakers. Only the treasury share and commission leave the holder base."  },  "what_if": {    "peer_chain_value": {      "l1_value": 3900000000    },    "binding_rule": {      "claim": 1.0    },    "long_runway": {      "discount": 0.12,      "exit_multiple": 40    },    "chain_and_runway": {      "l1_value": 3900000000,      "discount": 0.12,      "exit_multiple": 40    },    "all_three": {      "l1_value": 3900000000,      "claim": 1.0,      "discount": 0.12,      "exit_multiple": 40    }  }}