{  "note": "Set on 2026-11-01. Two rows were added after review and graded on the same snapshot as the rest: T6, an exploit rule, on 2026-11-12, and A5, which watches the chain premium, later the same day. The other nine thresholds are unchanged; on 2026-11-13 three row titles gained the window they measure (T2, T3, A2). Each row is graded by code at every build, with no human step (T6 reads a hand-kept incident list). If a toll row trips, Intents is not the durable toll road we say it is. If a token row trips, our caution on the token was wrong.",  "criteria": [    {"id": "T1", "side": "toll", "claim": "Intents keeps the lead among native cross-chain rails", "metric": "rail_share_13w", "op": "<", "threshold": 40, "unit": "%", "deadline": "2027-12-31", "effect": "Toll-road leg dead: drop to the bear case."},    {"id": "T2", "side": "toll", "claim": "Gross fee rate holds (three months)", "metric": "gross_bps_90d", "op": "<", "threshold": 8, "unit": "bps", "deadline": "2027-12-31", "effect": "Fees are compressing: pricing power is gone."},    {"id": "T3", "side": "toll", "claim": "Captured revenue rate holds (three months)", "metric": "net_bps_90d", "op": "<", "threshold": 2.5, "unit": "bps", "deadline": "2027-12-31", "effect": "Partners are winning the split: cut the base case."},    {"id": "T4", "side": "toll", "claim": "Reported volume stays corroborated on-chain", "metric": "flow_ratio_median", "op": "<", "threshold": 0.35, "unit": "x", "deadline": "2027-12-31", "effect": "Reported volume has come apart from settled flow: stop trusting it."},    {"id": "T5", "side": "toll", "claim": "Annualised volume does not fall below its pre-September run rate", "metric": "vol_annualised", "op": "<", "threshold": 26000000000, "unit": "usd", "deadline": "2027-06-30", "effect": "The September step-up was temporary."},    {"id": "T6", "side": "toll", "claim": "No exploit leaves Intents users with large unrecovered losses", "metric": "exploit_unrecovered_365d", "op": ">", "threshold": 10000000, "unit": "usd", "deadline": "2027-12-31", "effect": "Security, not fees, is the binding risk: drop to the bear case until the loss is repaid and the cause is fixed.", "added": "2026-11-12"},    {"id": "A1", "side": "token", "claim": "Captured revenue stays well below the value of issuance", "metric": "offset_90d_rev_pct", "op": ">", "threshold": 50, "unit": "%", "deadline": "2027-12-31", "effect": "Revenue is closing on issuance faster than we expected: raise the bull weight."},    {"id": "A2", "side": "token", "claim": "Captured revenue, annualised from the last three months, stays under $100M", "metric": "rev_annualised", "op": ">", "threshold": 100000000, "unit": "usd", "deadline": "2027-06-30", "effect": "Revenue is ahead of our base path: the bear half of the thesis is wrong."},    {"id": "A3", "side": "token", "claim": "No large on-chain burn of bought NEAR", "metric": "largest_daily_burn_since_buyback", "op": ">", "threshold": 100000, "unit": "NEAR", "deadline": "2027-12-31", "effect": "A binding burn exists: set the claim input to 1.0."},    {"id": "A4", "side": "token", "claim": "NEAR stays priced far above fee-token comps", "metric": "near_multiple", "op": "<", "threshold": 60, "unit": "x", "deadline": "2027-12-31", "effect": "The premium has closed: the valuation objection no longer holds."},    {"id": "A5", "side": "token", "claim": "The market's premium over our base case does not keep widening", "metric": "price_over_base_pct", "op": ">", "threshold": 100, "unit": "%", "deadline": "2027-12-31", "effect": "The market keeps paying a chain premium our cash-flow frame cannot see, and paying more of it: raise the chain value input to what the price implies and the bull weight.", "added": "2026-11-12"}  ]}