{ "price": 3.6, "scenarios": {  "bear": {   "probability": 0.35,   "summary": "The lead slips, fees compress, the buyback stays discretionary.",   "inputs": {    "supply": 1310472976.2,    "vol0": 47962291042.47,    "cagr": -0.05,    "gross_bps_start": 14.9248,    "gross_bps_end": 8,    "capture_start": 0.3,    "capture_end": 0.3,    "claim": 0.5,    "l1_burn_usd": 0,    "l1_growth": 0,    "issuance_start": 0.024891,    "issuance_end": 0.025,    "ramp_years": 3,    "treasury_share": 0.1,    "commission": 0.057948000000000006,    "discount": 0.15,    "exit_multiple": 12,    "l1_value": 700000000   }  },  "base": {   "probability": 0.45,   "summary": "Intents keeps most of its lane and volume compounds with crypto.",   "inputs": {    "supply": 1310472976.2,    "vol0": 47962291042.47,    "cagr": 0.3,    "gross_bps_start": 14.9248,    "gross_bps_end": 12,    "capture_start": 0.358545,    "capture_end": 0.45,    "claim": 0.75,    "l1_burn_usd": 0,    "l1_growth": 0,    "issuance_start": 0.024891,    "issuance_end": 0.016,    "ramp_years": 2,    "treasury_share": 0.1,    "commission": 0.057948000000000006,    "discount": 0.15,    "exit_multiple": 25,    "l1_value": 1661644993.0   }  },  "bull": {   "probability": 0.2,   "summary": "Intents becomes the default cross-chain rail and a binding rule sends revenue to holders.",   "inputs": {    "supply": 1310472976.2,    "vol0": 47962291042.47,    "cagr": 0.7,    "gross_bps_start": 14.9248,    "gross_bps_end": 12,    "capture_start": 0.358545,    "capture_end": 0.6,    "claim": 1.0,    "l1_burn_usd": 0,    "l1_growth": 0,    "issuance_start": 0.024891,    "issuance_end": 0.016,    "ramp_years": 2,    "treasury_share": 0.1,    "commission": 0.057948000000000006,    "discount": 0.15,    "exit_multiple": 30,    "l1_value": 3900000000   }  } }, "results": {  "bear": {   "price": 0.573314550815434,   "equity": 751313225.705868,   "pv_cash": 25244319.74029184,   "pv_terminal": 26068905.965576127,   "l1_value": 700000000,   "y5_volume": 37112306527.49029,   "y5_captured": 8906953.566597668,   "y5_earnings": 4453476.783298834,   "rows": [    {     "year": 1,     "volume": 45564176490.3465,     "gross": 68003622.12831233,     "captured": 20401086.638493698,     "earnings": 10200543.319246849,     "ownership": 0.9962072264658667    },    {     "year": 2,     "volume": 43285967665.82917,     "gross": 57109774.29958838,     "captured": 17132932.289876513,     "earnings": 8566466.144938257,     "ownership": 0.9924233307972168    },    {     "year": 3,     "volume": 41121669282.53771,     "gross": 47135302.198416024,     "captured": 14140590.659524808,     "earnings": 7070295.329762404,     "ownership": 0.9886483211588305    },    {     "year": 4,     "volume": 39065585818.41083,     "gross": 38015502.871611945,     "captured": 11404650.861483583,     "earnings": 5702325.430741792,     "ownership": 0.9848876710153569    },    {     "year": 5,     "volume": 37112306527.49029,     "gross": 29689845.221992232,     "captured": 8906953.566597668,     "earnings": 4453476.783298834,     "ownership": 0.9811413257457186    }   ]  },  "base": {   "price": 2.0512707826235506,   "equity": 2688134927.4967875,   "pv_cash": 141506481.05501398,   "pv_terminal": 884983453.4417735,   "l1_value": 1661644993.0,   "y5_volume": 178080629280.3182,   "y5_captured": 96163539.81137183,   "y5_earnings": 72122654.85852888,   "rows": [    {     "year": 1,     "volume": 62350978355.211006,     "gross": 93057588.17558531,     "captured": 33365332.952415235,     "earnings": 25023999.71431143,     "ownership": 0.9968891517494    },    {     "year": 2,     "volume": 81056271861.7743,     "gross": 115048030.02972798,     "captured": 43880325.323601015,     "earnings": 32910243.992700763,     "ownership": 0.9944622737576567    },    {     "year": 3,     "volume": 105373153420.30661,     "gross": 141857554.06055355,     "captured": 57349108.02394514,     "earnings": 43011831.01795885,     "ownership": 0.9920413038819527    },    {     "year": 4,     "volume": 136985099446.3986,     "gross": 174398469.80719897,     "captured": 74491908.3991852,     "earnings": 55868931.2993889,     "ownership": 0.9896262277392677    },    {     "year": 5,     "volume": 178080629280.3182,     "gross": 213696755.13638183,     "captured": 96163539.81137183,     "earnings": 72122654.85852888,     "ownership": 0.9872170309815964    }   ]  },  "bull": {   "price": 8.939587965662136,   "equity": 11715088447.362965,   "pv_cash": 595345828.9796011,   "pv_terminal": 7219742618.383365,   "l1_value": 3900000000,   "y5_volume": 680995946726.8833,   "y5_captured": 490317081.6433559,   "y5_earnings": 490317081.6433559,   "rows": [    {     "year": 1,     "volume": 81535894772.199,     "gross": 121690692.22961158,     "captured": 43631589.24546608,     "earnings": 43631589.24546608,     "ownership": 0.9968891517494    },    {     "year": 2,     "volume": 138611021112.7383,     "gross": 196738938.92657626,     "captured": 82415662.9820584,     "earnings": 82415662.9820584,     "ownership": 0.9944622737576567    },    {     "year": 3,     "volume": 235638735891.65512,     "gross": 317226291.8067817,     "captured": 152037837.93996578,     "earnings": 152037837.93996578,     "ownership": 0.9920413038819527    },    {     "year": 4,     "volume": 400585851015.8137,     "gross": 509993858.6452527,     "captured": 275211173.40235424,     "earnings": 275211173.40235424,     "ownership": 0.9896262277392677    },    {     "year": 5,     "volume": 680995946726.8833,     "gross": 817195136.0722599,     "captured": 490317081.6433559,     "earnings": 490317081.6433559,     "ownership": 0.9872170309815964    }   ]  } }, "weighted": 2.911649538098427, "what_if": {  "peer_chain_value": 3.759322034081322,  "binding_rule": 2.312369880211282,  "long_runway": 2.618876343556386,  "chain_and_runway": 4.3269275950141575,  "all_three": 4.777228546246167 }, "implied_rich": {  "exit_40x": {   "cagr": 0.493125631899899,   "y5_volume": 355943998323.8545  },  "chain_3_9b": {   "cagr": 0.23912643595808303,   "y5_volume": 140112871105.86877  } }, "reweighted": {  "10": 2.1581572346529634,  "20": 2.911649538098427,  "30": 3.6651418415438908,  "40": 4.418634144989355 }, "implied_base": {  "cagr": 0.6304667687059557,  "y5_volume": 552662094376.4747 }, "implied_bull_probability": 0.2913546772480596, "tornado": [  {   "key": "l1_value",   "label": "Value of NEAR as a chain, apart from Intents",   "low_input": 500000000,   "high_input": 3900000000,   "low": 1.1648389262655194,   "high": 3.759322034081322,   "mid": 2.0512707826235506  },  {   "key": "cagr",   "label": "Volume growth a year",   "low_input": 0.05,   "high_input": 0.6,   "low": 1.5566276305482856,   "high": 3.3956779640454484,   "mid": 2.0512707826235506  },  {   "key": "exit_multiple",   "label": "Exit multiple on holder earnings",   "low_input": 12,   "high_input": 45,   "low": 1.7001064288769,   "high": 2.5915236345414736,   "mid": 2.0512707826235506  },  {   "key": "gross_bps_end",   "label": "Year-5 gross fee, bps",   "low_input": 6,   "high_input": 20,   "low": 1.6848135007716671,   "high": 2.5398804917593947,   "mid": 2.0512707826235506  },  {   "key": "capture_end",   "label": "Year-5 capture rate",   "low_input": 0.25,   "high_input": 0.7,   "low": 1.722882200101486,   "high": 2.4617565107761306,   "mid": 2.0512707826235506  },  {   "key": "claim",   "label": "Share of captured revenue that reaches holders",   "low_input": 0.4,   "high_input": 1.0,   "low": 1.6857320460007261,   "high": 2.312369880211282,   "mid": 2.0512707826235506  },  {   "key": "discount",   "label": "Discount rate",   "low_input": 0.2,   "high_input": 0.11,   "low": 1.908075143794326,   "high": 2.1953220938906712,   "mid": 2.0512707826235506  },  {   "key": "issuance_end",   "label": "Long-run issuance (stakers barely feel it)",   "low_input": 0.025,   "high_input": 0.016,   "low": 2.04670322882619,   "high": 2.0512707826235506,   "mid": 2.0512707826235506  } ], "grid": {  "volumes": [   50000000000,   100000000000,   200000000000,   400000000000,   800000000000,   1600000000000  ],  "net_bps": [   2,   3,   4,   5.5,   8,   12  ],  "prices": [   [    1.356887389767987,    1.401344339721803,    1.4458012896756192,    1.512486714606343,    1.6236290894908831,    1.801456889306147   ],   [    1.4362503299280185,    1.5203887499618502,    1.604527169995682,    1.7307348000464295,    1.941080850131009,    2.277634530266336   ],   [    1.591922993836426,    1.753897745824462,    1.9158724978124972,    2.1588346257945505,    2.5637715057646395,    3.2116705137167822   ],   [    1.8989036450343317,    2.2143687226213205,    2.5298338002083085,    3.0030314165887915,    3.791694110556262,    5.0535544209042165   ],   [    2.5064999109685235,    3.125763121522607,    3.745026332076692,    4.6739211479078175,    6.222079174293029,    8.699132016509365   ],   [    3.712229803700709,    4.934357960620885,    6.156486117541062,    7.989678352921326,    11.04499874522177,    15.933511372902478   ]  ] }, "reasons": {  "probability": "Judgement, explained in THESIS.md. The result leans on the bull weight, so the memo shows what other weights give.",  "claim": "Share of captured revenue we credit to holders. Below 1 because nothing on-chain binds the buyback: the NEAR sits in a 2-confirmation multisig and a DAO wallet.",  "exit_multiple": "Market cap over annualised holder revenue across ten tokens. The median anchors the base case; the bull case uses the high end of the normal range, the bear the low end.",  "l1_value": "What a chain with this usage fetches with no Intents, on an FDV basis because NEAR is fully circulating: bear near Aptos, base the median of seven peers, bull near Avalanche and Sui. In the base case this one input is over half the value.",  "discount": "One rate for all cases, because risk is already in the scenario weights.",  "commission": "Stake-weighted commission of pools open to delegators, read from chain.",  "l1_burn_usd": "Zero. Chain fees are part of the chain value, so counting them in earnings would double count.",  "ownership": "Value is for the average holder. Staking rewards move value from non-stakers to stakers. Only the treasury share and commission leave the holder base." }}